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skinner75

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Posts posted by skinner75

    We Get Our Dysons Out To Vacuum Up More Donations For Martin House!

    in British Outline Modelling

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Der Rechtsanwalt said:

    It costs the US government about $8 trillion dollars a year to run the country. They only take in about $5 trillion in taxes leaving a deficit of $3 trillion a year. They borrow the balance by issuing US treasuries. Normally the Chinese buy the bulk of these, but they quietly started to get out of dollar denominated assets as far back as 2008, buying less and less treasuries every year.  

    The current evidence that we are nearing the end of the collapse can be seen as follows:

    1. Normally when an economy enters recession, prices drop. While the EU economies don't meet the central bank's definition of recession, you will note that Germany contracted in 2023 and 2024. Ireland experienced a -4.8% contraction in 2024. Estonia -3% while Finland -1.3% during the same period. The ECB jacked up interest rates but prices continued to climb and have done so since. Moreover, these price rises were in basic things like food, clothing and fuel, not just next year's Mercedes or Christmas in Aruba. 

    2. The 30 year long treasury bonds issued by governments are favoured by pensions funds. They normally generate a low yield with the principal paid back at the end of the thirty year term. Since June 2022 the German 30 year bond has gone up from 1.4% yield to 3.348% today. It's not just the German long bond, but British Gilts, the US Treasury 30 year and the French equivalent. The yields are sky rocketing everywhere. What this means is that the market is factoring in risk of being paid back in fiat currency. The German 30 year bond hit a 14 year high in late August. It has been higher but that was in the early 1990's when the German reunification costs were starting to hurt the German economy. This is going to have a knock on effect on the stock market. Why? If you can buy a bond giving you a high return which is backed up by the taxpayer, why would you speculate on the stock market which is much more risky?

    3. The S&P 500 was at 3,298.4 on 25th September 2020. Today it's 6,693.75. Some economists predict that if it reaches 7,000 it will go off the end of a cliff. The reason being is that as the long bond yield continues to go up, people will start dumping stocks. Many of these companies that the S&P500 tracks borrowed heavily when interest rates were low and the underlying economy today is very weak meaning their performance is probably overstated by a country mile. If the stock market collapses it will start a cascade in other sectors.

    4. The Fed are expected to announce an interest rate cut this month when we have a nasty level of inflation in the US economy in addition to everywhere else. This will cause the US dollar (the world's reserve currency) to tank in value causing further inflation.

    The above conditions are very similar if not identical to the Weimar Republic in 1921 and we all know what happened to the Reichsmark in 1922-1923. 

     

    With the orange clown in charge in the USA, that debt will skyrocket, plus US bonds have to offer a greater return, as they aren't considered as a good safe bet with said orange lunatic at the helm.

    • Like 2

    Navan Branchline

    in General Chat

    Posted

    On Kingscourt, I used to go out with a girl from there around 15 years back, and remember visiting the old station building while the tracks were still in place. 

    I found some old square freight shipping slips in the old office, which I have somewhere up the attic

    • Like 3

    Whiterock

    in Irish Model Layouts

    Posted · Edited by skinner75

    59 minutes ago, Galteemore said:

    An incredible number - 228 - Leopards were hi jacked and burned. Ulsterbus was run in those days by the remarkable Werner Heubeck - an Afrika Korps veteran from the Herman Goering Division. Heubeck was known for rescuing vehicles in highly risky settings - doubtless deploying skills he’d learned in Tunisia. The RUC despaired of his lone jogging round Belfast in the 70s as a prime target for IRA kidnap! 

    A hell of a lot were destroyed by fire too down in Cork, Kells Transport Museum
    https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/local-news/gallery/haunting-photos-show-corks-abandoned-26935945

    https://www.corkbeo.ie/culture/whats-on-news/gallery/abandoned-bus-graveyard-16432007

    • Informative 1

    Interesting pictures...

    in Letting off Steam

    Posted

    On 13/7/2025 at 5:01 PM, spudfan said:

    This says it all.

    "RNLI make appeal after lifeboat station was blocked by cars in Bundoran"

    clipboard_image_683d4f304926ae835efa0666eb1663d2.png.1dffd0dbad5a5adfd7e0b81b33f766f6.png

    I'm sure if they got a shout they would just smash the glass, and release the handbrake? Would still use up their time all the same

    An Update on the State of the Model Train Industry

    in News

    Posted

    On 19/5/2025 at 7:40 PM, Ironroad said:

    Yes he did, but please read the CNN news extracts I posted earlier which explain what is in place for at least the next 85 days or so.

    All shipments sent via commercial carriers will have a tariff of 30% applied.

    All shipments sent via the post office with a value of $1 up to $800 will be subject to a 54% tariff, but with a option for the consignee to pay a flat tariff of $100.

    So if IRM/AS are offering their US customers a choice between having orders shipped by mail or courier a simple rule of thumb can be applied to minimise the tariff being paid by US customers.

    It makes no sense to send an order with a value of $334 or less via the mail, because the minimum tariff such a order would be subject to would be $100, whereas the maximum tariff sent via courier (@30%) would be $100.

    And It makes no sense to send an order valued between $335 and $800 via a courier because it would incur a tariff of between $101 & $240. Whereas sending that same order via the mail incurs a maximum tariff of $100. 

    So the simple rule of thumb is to send all orders valued between $335 and $800 via the mail and all others via courier. 

     

     

     

     

    Looks like the Orange One has done away with the below $800 thing:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c939q47xlleo

    • Like 1
    • Informative 1
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