Somewhat worrying post from 'Sheldrake' over there:
Friends
We have commissioned a feasibility study from an expert in the world of finance on the future prospects of the Malahide project. It makes for interesting reading, and is accompanied by actual projected revenue and expense streams. I won't post those for obvious reasons, but they are available to serious players if required.
The executive summary is hereunder:
1. During 22 years at Malahide Castle, the museum was not viable as a stand-alone operation. Direct income exceeded direct expenses but a notional net loss was incurred after absorbing cost of administrative support from Dublin Tourism and 7/24 security provided by Fingal Council.
2. Casino site is not fit for purpose. Existing building is entirely unsuitable. A minimum 10,000 sq ft new building will be needed to house static museum and working railway, and to satisfy health & safety. Grounds are too small to provide adequate car and coach parking, plus complementary landscaping. Access problems from busy main road. Existing traffic congestion in nearby Malahide village.
3. Facility will constitute a radical change of use for location, implying community resistance. Planning/ NIMBY-type objections may result in costly delays during pre-commissioning phase.
4. Assuming project commences first quarter 2013 and there is no undue delay, commissioning would be unlikely before 2016. Capital cost estimated at € 2.3 million. Delay beyond 2016 will result in escalating holding costs.
5. Gaffney bequest to fund Casino project is €1.5 million. Opening by end 2016 will incur a minimum capital shortfall of €800,000.
6. For income projections, a target figure of 75,000 visitors pa has been projected. Note this is believed to be 3/ 4 times average annual numbers in years 1988-2010. Projections include a discount factor to recognise customer resistance at higher ticket price levels.
7. Projected operating budget shows annual trading losses of € 330,000 to 400,000. Note that this result may be impervious to additional promotional support ie increased advertising cost would offset increased revenue implying market saturation.
Circulate at will.