An Update on the State of the Model Train Industry

[minister_for_hardship]

13 hours ago, James Regan said:

Just so we aren't all depressed, Working on the display of various things. Unfortunately, when I upload it appears to be low resolution. 

Better not be anything made in China in there. 

[David Holman]

 The capacity of the Orange Man Baby (as the Daily Star calls the current POTUS), to invade every part of our lives is quite remarkable. The fact that he has now put politics into the former sanctity of our hobby borders on the unforgiveable.

 We must hope that, as with all his other T word shenanigans, it is (mostly) bluff and bluster - what he does as part of 'doing deals'. And focussing attention on himself, of course.

 What never ceases to amaze me is how (particularly in more modern history), regimes built by individuals have prospered, even when basic logic should tell the masses what is proposed is not right. The power of the internet doesn't help either.

Edited May 3 by David Holman

[murphaph]

Trump isn't even trying to hide the actual purpose in his mind of the tariffs. He has stated many times that he intends to eliminate income taxes and to replace them with tariffs, thereby shifting the tax burden from the ultra wealthy to the low and middle income demographic. And his dirt poor supporters lap it up. 

Edited May 3 by murphaph

[DJ Dangerous]

6 hours ago, minister_for_hardship said:

Better not be anything made in China in there. 

What about the cabinets?

Hui Mei sounds like a traditional Irish cabinet maker to me.

4 hours ago, David Holman said:

The power of the internet doesn't help either.

Think you mean the power of stupidity.

[DJ Dangerous]

6 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I literally told you it was Chinese. Very observant. A Bright bulb indeed.

This thread is getting too political. It’s easy to throw out red meat to a crowd that already drank the same kool aid. If Trump is stupid it must make you so proud to see your fearless leader Martin groveling at his feet. Fools have underestimated Trump because they don’t like his style and yet he has consistently come out on top. He is no fool. 

Now now, that’s the opposite of the truth. I forget what that is called. I’m a low watt bulb so your playground tantrum is definitel warranted.

You said the following, while providing no link:

13 hours ago, James Regan said:

 

Started with LFT HUIMEI2Y Glass Display Cabinet on Amazon. I added 12 volt LED track lighting and replaced the shelves with heavier grade 8mm glass from a local glass shop. 

Yet last time, for German manufactured cases, you DID provide a link:

On 27/10/2024 at 1:06 PM, James Regan said:

It’s from a company in Germany and they will ship to the US and elsewhere.

https://www.train-safe.de/en/Our-Products/Acrylic-display-case/Vision/

Selective?

[James Regan]

28 minutes ago, DJ Dangerous said:

I’m a low watt bulb

You said it my friend. I literally told you it was ordered from Amazon. I figure most people on here can find Amazon without a link. The other I provided the link from where it was ordered in Germany. Theres no hiding the ball here. Peace brother! 

[James Regan]

4 hours ago, murphaph said:

And his dirt poor supporters lap it up.

Not sure where you get your information but maybe read a bit more. The Dems get more support from the ‘dirt poor’ as you arrogantly call them. 2024 results by average income group of voters below. Oh and Trump also had 69% support from those ‘Catholics’ - what a bunch of losers they are.
 

2023 total family income:

Under $30,000 (11%)

50%

46%

$30,000-$49,999(16%)

46%

52%

$50,000-$99,999(32%)

46%

52%

$100,000-$199,999(28%)

51%

48%

$200,000 or more(13%)

[DJ Dangerous]

4 minutes ago, James Regan said:

You said it my friend. I literally told you it was ordered from Amazon. I figure most people on here can find Amazon without a link. The other I provided the link from where it was ordered in Germany. Theres no hiding the ball here. Peace brother! 

Can find Amazon without a link?

Or can find one specific Amazon product among thousands, without a link.

Both are very very different things.

Wait, you wouldn’t happen to be trying to belittle me to hide your actions, would you?

Classic misdirection, Archer.

44 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I literally told you it was Chinese. Very observant. A Bright bulb indeed.

Would you mind highlighting that “literal” quote on it being Chinese, please?

[murphaph]

30 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Not sure where you get your information but maybe read a bit more. The Dems get more support from the ‘dirt poor’ as you arrogantly call them. 2024 results by average income group of voters below. Oh and Trump also had 69% support from those ‘Catholics’ - what a bunch of losers they are.
 

 

2023 total family income:

Under $30,000 (11%)

50%

46%

$30,000-$49,999(16%)

46%

52%

$50,000-$99,999(32%)

46%

52%

$100,000-$199,999(28%)

51%

48%

$200,000 or more(13%)

Settle down now James. It wasn't arrogance. It was factual. These people are dirt poor. I was expressing sympathy for them living in trailers that are literally falling to pieces, but still not seeing how they are about to start subsidising the ultra-wealthy by picking up the tariff tab on cheap Chinese made products, so Trump's class can pay no income tax.

[James Regan]

38 minutes ago, DJ Dangerous said:

Both are very very different things

Sure, here was me thinking the cabinets were made by Hugh O’Mei down in Cork, rather than some Chinese lad. Thanks for noticing that!

[BosKonay]

Perhaps we might, if possible, return to the topic at hand? Or at least the broad hobby?

As it stands right now if you buy say $400 of models from IRM for delivery to the USA than you will be asked to pay import duties and fees of at least $580 before your models will be released to you. So that $400 loco is now effectively $1000

[DJ Dangerous]

7 hours ago, BosKonay said:

Perhaps we might, if possible, return to the topic at hand? Or at least the broad hobby?

As it stands right now if you buy say $400 of models from IRM for delivery to the USA than you will be asked to pay import duties and fees of at least $580 before your models will be released to you. So that $400 loco is now effectively $1000

Shocking when you lay it out like that!

[James Regan]

9 hours ago, BosKonay said:

As it stands right now if you buy say $400 of models from IRM for delivery to the USA than you will be asked to pay import duties and fees of at least $580 before your models will be released to you. So that $400 loco is now effectively $1000

Thats the 145% tariff for Chinese manufactured models. Guess, i’ll be buying Trix and Roco for a while. Trump is likely to end up giving folks a grace period but I doubt it will be anything but short term. I see Hasbro and Mattel already diversifying production out of China. They see how the winds are blowing.

[James Regan]

 

[irishthump]

On 2/5/2025 at 2:50 PM, James Regan said:

Indeed… meantime your Chinese friends are building warships and nuclear missiles…whatever for? We’ll see what ‘sensible’ leaders in Europe do then? 
https://www.cfr.org/blog/six-takeaways-pentagons-report-chinas-military

Change is coming…

The reason they are building warships and nuclear missiles is because other countries keep improving theirs. It's not rocket science.

[irishthump]

On 4/5/2025 at 2:15 AM, James Regan said:

Thats the 145% tariff for Chinese manufactured models. Guess, i’ll be buying Trix and Roco for a while. Trump is likely to end up giving folks a grace period but I doubt it will be anything but short term. I see Hasbro and Mattel already diversifying production out of China. They see how the winds are blowing.

Yeah but neither company is bringing any production back to the US. Hasbro production in China stands at 50% and they stated they will reduced that to 40% by 2026, hardly earth-shattering. Mattel are talking about moving some production to other countries again, not the US. They also said they would counter the tariffs by raising prices in the US. So whatever the Mango Mussolini is telling people, his tariffs are not going to have the effect he claimed they would.

[DJ Dangerous]

46 minutes ago, irishthump said:

The reason they are building warships and nuclear missiles is because other countries keep improving theirs. It's not rocket science.

Well, that part kind of is.

[Colin_McLeod]

17 hours ago, irishthump said:

It's not rocket science.

 

Well some of it is  lol 

[jhb171achill]

18 hours ago, irishthump said:

 Mango Mussolini 

[minister_for_hardship]

55 minutes ago, jhb171achill said:

I'm totally stealing Mango Mussolini.

[irishthump]

23 hours ago, DJ Dangerous said:

Well, that part kind of is.

That wasn't lost on me!

[commerlad]

@irishthump Are you related to Ecky or Icky ?

 

[Noel]

Where will it all end Ted? Fortunately, my collection days are just about over, I’ve enough stock now to see me through future projects and to EOL.. Not happy at potential costs for our grand children developing an interest in the hobby. They’ll get my stuff anyway, but I’d prefer they start small and learn the joy making stuff themselves. 

Edited Sunday at 19:27 by Noel

[irishthump]

2 hours ago, commerlad said:

@irishthump Are you related to Ecky or Icky ?

 

 

[Galteemore]

1 minute ago, irishthump said:

 

Now that was comedy gold 

[irishthump]

13 minutes ago, Galteemore said:

Now that was comedy gold 

Loved that show, it was like Monty Python for kids!

[Mayner]

2 hours ago, Noel said:

Where will it all end Ted? Fortunately, my collection days are just about over, I’ve enough stock now to see me through future projects and to EOL.. Not happy at potential costs for our grand children developing an interest in the hobby. They’ll get my stuff anyway, but I’d prefer they start small and learn the joy making stuff themselves. 

Looks like "Everything is Awesome" now the White House claiming that they reached a 'trade deal' with China, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/11/us-china-trade-talks-geneva-intended-de-escalate-tensions-lutnick,. I guess someone on the US side realized that China banning US food exports and 'essential mineral' exports would piss off powerful interests in farming/agribusiness and within the 'defense' sector.

I guess its likely to have no long term impact apart from possibly higher prices for the 'model railway industry' , though possibly China setting up a small number of 'high tech' manufacturing plants in 'rust belt states' in a similar manner to Japanese companies setting up assembly plants in the States and the UK during the eighties after Japanese imports decimated the UK motor industry, Honda Swindon, Nissan Sunderland, electronics plants Telford.

Main issue is that US and British Outline tends to sell to an older demographic of collectors who may end up having to dispose of their collections as they go into retirement homes before reaching the deceased estate stage, so potentially a glut on the second hand market. One friend in our Garden Railway Group bought/acquired several friends collections as they got older/passed on before loosing interest in the hobby (active in model boating) then passed on his collection to former group member, one mainly model Die-Cast retailer/dealer makes no bones about specialising in deceased estates. Though according to the IRM guys their sales were to a younger demographic than Accurascale.

Like everything else as I get older I have accumulated more model railway stuff than I can handle/deal with, unless a child is from a reasonably wealthy family cost has always been a barrier to entry to the model railway hobby, but the younger members on this board demonstrate a high level of ingenuity and creativity. When I got my first 'proper' train set (Triang-Hornby) as a 12/13 year old it ran on battery power for the 1st year until I saved up enough pocket a transformer.

Like many 'older people' I am probably getting to the stage of having more models than I can comfortably manage or appreciate in my collection though I continue to buy/assemble the occasional model. 

I would not be too worried about the younger generation, model railways has always been an expensive hobby for a youngster getting started,  they will find a way into the hobby if interested, the younger members of this group demonstrate a high level of creativity and ingenuity in their modelling. I got my first proper trainset (Triang-Hornby) at 13, but quickly got involved in 'modelling' as I loved taking things apart & sometimes managed to successfully re-assemble them, largely dependent on buying second hand until 19 when I had a paying job. Railways becoming 'less interestin" from the perspective of an older generation does not seem to be a factor the same argument seems to have been going on for many years, interestingly some of the younger members of this Newsgroup are interested in modelling the steam era (& lines that closed) 60 years ago!

Edited Sunday at 22:40 by Mayner

[Noel]

Looks like it's sorted

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/0512/1512326-us-china-trade/

[commerlad]

For those that have not got a clue.

 

 

[James Regan]

12 hours ago, Noel said:

Looks like it's sorted

Maybe not quite -

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1j5r9ngd3ko

still a 30% tariff into the US. Will IRM be passing that on to their customers, or might they be able to use the deminimis shipping amount of $800? Thoughts?

[commerlad]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Maybe not quite -

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1j5r9ngd3ko

still a 30% tariff into the US. Will IRM be passing that on to their customers, or might they be able to use the deminimis shipping amount of $800? Thoughts?

I would doubt that would work when the shipment might be a whole container load.

[BRBlue]

9 hours ago, James Regan said:

Maybe not quite -

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1j5r9ngd3ko

still a 30% tariff into the US. Will IRM be passing that on to their customers, or might they be able to use the deminimis shipping amount of $800? Thoughts?

I do not think you understand how tarriffs work. It is not up to IRM or any other company based outside the US to collect tariffs for the US government. A company based in Europe, for example, can sell product to a customer in the US at exacrly the same price that they would sell it to anyone else. When that package enters the US, the tariff or any other local taxes are imposed by the US government at whatever rate the Mango coloured man-child has decided that week. The purchaser in the US then has to pay those charges.  IRM will not be paying any tariffs or deciding whether or not to pass them on. The issue would only apply if tariffs where being applied to goods coming into Europe from China or wherever, which is not the case here.

[Warbonnet]

3 hours ago, BRBlue said:

I do not think you understand how tarriffs work. It is not up to IRM or any other company based outside the US to collect tariffs for the US government. A company based in Europe, for example, can sell product to a customer in the US at exacrly the same price that they would sell it to anyone else. When that package enters the US, the tariff or any other local taxes are imposed by the US government at whatever rate the Mango coloured man-child has decided that week. The purchaser in the US then has to pay those charges.  IRM will not be paying any tariffs or deciding whether or not to pass them on. The issue would only apply if tariffs where being applied to goods coming into Europe from China or wherever, which is not the case here.

Correct.

What this whole experience has taught me is just how much Americans do not understand tariffs and how they work. It's nothing to do with companies, it's basically a tax imposed by Governments.

 

[Horsetan]

53 minutes ago, Warbonnet said:

...What this whole experience has taught me is just how much Americans do not understand tariffs and how they work. ...

They don't want to understand it either.

[commerlad]

39 minutes ago, Horsetan said:

They don't want to understand it either.

The Mango "King" hopes they don't work it out