Coronavirus

[spudfan]

Regarding the "coronavirus" outbreak in China. I wonder if it will get to a point when goods from China will be suspect. People will worry that if someone sneezes on a packet in China and it ends up over here maybe they could contract it. Don't know much about it but it does not take much to get people concerned. I was just thinking of it from our end of things like the IRM stuff and the Paddy Murphy stuff that will come from China. I am sure that the boys at IRM and Paddy are following this with interest. Governments like to be seen to be doing the correct thing and might put a hold on imports from China for optics sake.I suppose it will all come down to knowledge of the incubation period etc. Imagine getting your long awaited 121 or "A" class and finding disposable gloves and a face mask included in the packing.....

[Broithe]

I would expect that the main means of transmission would be via the people travelling with the cargo, rather than contaminated items.

Viruses tend not to last long outside a living host.

But, if it gets going properly, it will certainly disrupt international transport to some extent.

[WRENNEIRE]

Wuhan would appear to be a long way from where the IRM models are manufactured, it is in central China.

The following info about the virus would suggest that we should not be worried about it, there are no doornobs on the Ferts!

Sometimes, but not often, a coronavirus can infect both animals and humans. Most coronaviruses spread the same way other cold-causing viruses do, through infected people coughing and sneezing, by touching an infected person's hands or face, or by touching things such as doorknobs that infected people have touched.

[Broithe]

If we want to worry, there has been rabies in Co Cork.

https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2020/0125/1110841-cork-animal-rabies/

But, it seems likely to have been contained.

[Warbonnet]

26 minutes ago, WRENNEIRE said:

Wuhan would appear to be a long way from where the IRM models are manufactured, it is in central China.

The following info about the virus would suggest that we should not be worried about it, there are no doornobs on the Ferts!

Sometimes, but not often, a coronavirus can infect both animals and humans. Most coronaviruses spread the same way other cold-causing viruses do, through infected people coughing and sneezing, by touching an infected person's hands or face, or by touching things such as doorknobs that infected people have touched.

Over 2,700 kilometres between the two regions, so about a distance of Dublin to Eastern Europe in comparison. Something we will keep an eye on of course but I think we should be okay!

[Broithe]

Some people have been struggling with Corona issues for ages.

[DiveController]

All coronaviruses mutate readily like the common cold and influenza. There is a lot that is not known for certain about the 2019-nCoV strain, including how contagious it is, its hardiness outside an animal/human host and its exact mortality rate for particular populations, age groups and people with other chronic illnesses (disorders of the immune system recent chemotherapy etc. things you don't normally think of right away). This is why the WHO has not given any authoritative guidance as yet. This is the same group of viruses that caused SARS and MERS the latter having a pretty high mortality.

Coronaviruses can exist on environmental objects (even stainless steel) for up to a month but under more usual temperature and humidity levels more likely for a couple of days. Most transmissions are live animal-human or human-human by direct contact or close-range airborne contact. A friend who had been in the Wuhan area developed this, went undiagnosed and returned home. Mild cases can also transmit that disease to others. Anyway lots of variables and more that I'm not going to go on about that would allow contamination where you might not think possible. Assuming that the present strain remains a low mortality and only moderately contagious, contaminated plastics would be likely be non-infectious after a week or so given that transit time from China etc. a customer should be ok. If you want to be extra safe , leave your goodies in the box for a week before opening (like that was a possibility!). As for anyone examining lots of boxes of these, hand washing and a mask would significantly reduce the risk of contagion.

 

Edited January 25, 2020 by DiveController

[Broithe]

1 hour ago, DiveController said:

Assuming that the present strain remains a low mortality and only moderately contagious, contaminated plastics would be likely be non-infectious after a week or so given that transit time from China etc. a customer should be ok. If you want to be extra safe , leave your goodies in the box for a week before opening (like that was a possibility!). As for anyone examining lots of boxes of these, hand washing and a mask would significantly reduce the risk of contagion.

1, @WRENNEIREshould be totally safe then...

2, Four masks and a bar of carbolic are already on order for IRM, surely?

[DiveController]

Yes, Dave should be safe as long as he's not updating the Lima Thread and we really can't afford to lose the other lads (at a minimum you feel really sick)

Edited January 25, 2020 by DiveController

[PorkyP]

Have to say this is a new one on me...they do this scare every few years don't they..a while back we were all goin to die of bird flu, then before that it was pig flu or something !

[Broithe]

There are loads of these things out there - one day, there will be a Big One again.

More people died from the Spanish Flu after WW1 than in the war itself.

These days, though, we do have the possibility to recognise the first stages and react.

People can get blasé about it when successful containments occur, one after the other, and usually a long way away.

It can be like the Y2K computer bug - I know people who believe that was all a con*, because they are unaware of any problems resulting from it, largely because they were preempted.

 

* I'm sure there were cons around that, but I do have an old (unconnected) machine that can't cope with the real date, but it doesn't matter, so I leave it alone in its own little time-warp.

[PorkyP]

I'm sure we'll all go extinct at some point, everything does....but nevertheless, the media do like to whip up a scare, just my own view is that life's too short to go around worrying all the time about being hit by asteroids, aliens or the plague or whatever !!..

[Noel]

Just do as we did during the foot and mouth outbreak, spray all new imported models with disinfectant put straw on the tracks with jeyes fluid on it and drive the new rolling stock over it to disinfect the wheels. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by Noel

[Broithe]

6 hours ago, Noel said:

Just do as we did during the foot and mouth outbreak, spray all new imported models with disinfectant put straw on the tracks with jeyes fluid on it and drive the new rolling stock over it to disinfect the wheels. 

Where I live, on the Big Island, there was an infected farm about a mile and a half away. There were no precautions of any sort anywhere that I saw during the whole event, apart from a feedstuffs yard that did have straw down at the entrance.

I saw a bloke walk out of a field of sheep, swill his wellies in a puddle, then get in his car and drive off.

 

[DiveController]

While this all seems to be remote from the majority of users on this forum 2019-nCoV has been confirmed in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Australia, France, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Singapore, Thailand, The Republic of Korea, United States and Vietnam. The bigger issue is the cases that have not yet been diagnosed and the fact that it may be transmissible even by person who do not appear ill. This novel virus has adapted to human hosts remarkably quickly. SARS was transmitted to humans from cats, MERS from camels, Avian flu from birds. None has an effective vaccine. 

The SARS epidemic was handled poorly so at least the Chinese have been more proactive with curfews on non-essential travel and provision of better protective equipment and medical personnel and treatment facilities.

While the plastic goodies are probably going to be ok, there are now cases in Shanghai and Beijing (as you'd have predicted), 3000 have been infected, and 100 people have died (so far). These are just the facts (I hope) whether you consider them relevant to you or not.

Edited January 27, 2020 by DiveController

[skinner75]

Does anyone remember the '70s BBC series "Survivors"? Scary stuff. 

The difference between the Spanish Flu after WW1, and the coronavirus today, is the ability for the virus to spread thanks to international flights. The fact it can be passed on to someone from somebody who isn't showing symptoms makes it even worse.

[PorkyP]

Yep, I remember watching the 'survivors' serial thing as a kid, didn't the intro have airport arrival travellers sneezing and dropping dead as i recall!...Armageddon virus type theme is certainly a popular vehicle for film and tv drama..

[Noel]

The difference nowadays is air travel. Right now and just about any point in time there are 5 million people up there in the sky travelling   on board civilian aircraft. So geographic containment like 30 years ago is no longer possible. The problem is the media hype the facts to such an extent that a degree of unfounded hysteria can be generated that is disproportionate to the actual risk. 50 fatalities so far, but we don't know if these fatalities were amongst vulnerable people  such as very elderly folk or folks with pre-existing complicating serious medical conditions. 50 fatalities from a global population of 7700,000,000 statistically rounds down to Zero % risk for most of us. Like the SARs crisis of 2009, folks were unnecessarily alarmed by media fuelled over hyping the facts. Millions did not die, not even one thousand thank God. So rest easy and do not worry about opening your next pack of Chinese manufactured wagons, or visiting a Chinese take away this week, the car journey there, or even your walk down the stairs this morning had a far greater statistical risk of fatality. Too many scary movies combined with an insatiable 24hr media business selling adverts. Rest easy.

 

Just some of the aircraft in flight at the time of this post, and only in two parts of the globe.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Noel

[Broithe]

Travel was a factor in the Spanish Flu, perhaps for the first* large scale event that kind. It happened around the end of WW1, even precipitating the end, in part - then commercial shipping reemerged, as the U-boat threat disappeared, and large numbers of troops were shipped home, all over the world. Not as fast as air transport would spread things today, of course.

In terms of the current situation, there's little point even informing 'us' that it's going on at the moment,  but it's free news and they need to fill up their spaces with stuff that's 'different and interesting'.

Every time there is a successful containment, it essentially just raises the scepticism that it will ever happen on a proper large scale and require 'us' to take difficult measures ourselves.

 

* The bubonic plague was transport-related, I suppose, but much slower, of course.

[Railer]

On a slightly lighter note, what springs to mind readying this topic is the Osaka Flu from the Simpsons.

[spudfan]

[DiveController]

Just thought I'd update this one month on for those that opined on Co-2019n (now renamed SARS - CoViD -2)

These are official WHO stats on CONFIRMED cases only and the number of deaths since YESTERDAY (61 deaths/24hrs ........ from a population of 7.7Bn of course)  We're way beyond the number of SARS and MERS fatalities combined

SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours

Globally

81 109 confirmed (871 new)

China

78 191 confirmed (412 new)

2718 deaths (52 new)

Outside of China

2918 confirmed (459 new) in 37 countries (4 new)

43 deaths (9 new)

WHO RISK ASSESSMENT

China VERY HIGH

Regional Level HIGH

Global Level HIGH

[Noel]

Statistically the risk is low, to date 2700 fatalities mostly elderly or with pre-existing medical conditions out of 90,000 (<3%) cases out of a global population of 7,700,000,000 rounds mathematically to a risk of almost 0% here.

I understand from WHO and HSE advise the virus can only survive for 9 days on infected surfaces and cannot be transmitted or carried by product packaging that may have been handled by infected persons, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. It seems the main risk of Covid-19 is to the global economy due supply chain disruption rather than health that may cause a short term recession. Analysts expect markets to rebound fairly quickly afterwards. Airline & travel stocks badly affected, ironically this slowing down of air travel in 2020 could help the likes of Boeing survive the 737-Max debacle that threatens to bring down the iconic company that brought us the 707, 727, 737, 747,777 and 787. Airbus will be making hay.

[NIR]

0%, isn't that just the small numbers fallacy though.

[Noel]

3 minutes ago, NIR said:

0%, isn't that just the small numbers fallacy though.

Possibly but you get the drift. Not good if one is unlucky enough to be one of the 0.0001%, but ok for the 99.999%

[irishthump]

1 hour ago, NIR said:

0%, isn't that just the small numbers fallacy though.

Especially since seasonal flu has a mortality rate of .1% but yet we’ve had >20 deaths this flu season.

[WRENNEIRE]

Ist Dublin case announced

[minister_for_hardship]

Folks on Adverts selling masks for many times their retail value now. You'd have to be some low life to do this.

[Georgeconna]

The Shipping cost have massively increased from China so this will be reflected in the prices now for anything coming from China , some cutomers are now Railing thier stuff from China to Europe.

Is only gonna get worse price wise for the next while yet.

 

[Georgeconna]

10 hours ago, WRENNEIRE said:

Ist Dublin case announced

Hold Onto it there Dave, We have enough problems down here!

[DiveController]

On 3/1/2020 at 3:02 AM, minister_for_hardship said:

Folks on Adverts selling masks for many times their retail value now. You'd have to be some low life to do this.

Same could be said for certain railway models, split decision always on this forum though. Same has happened during genuine natural disasters with people selling $1 bottles of water for $20-40 in a developed and 'civilized' society. Honor, humanity and shame  in all in short supply.

[Mayner]

On 3/1/2020 at 10:02 PM, minister_for_hardship said:

Folks on Adverts selling masks for many times their retail value now. You'd have to be some low life to do this.

Classical spread panic and  Black Market economy, my Galaxy phone has been swamped with adds for masks for the past month or so.

We had panic buying on the weekend with supermarkets in Auckland sold out of baked canned food and toilet paper.

Some of the buyers are believed to be stockpiling to sell on the blackmarket if there is a serious outbreak.

[skinner75]

On 3/1/2020 at 9:02 AM, minister_for_hardship said:

Folks on Adverts selling masks for many times their retail value now. You'd have to be some low life to do this.

They aren't even effective at stopping it, so it is a waste of money. Might help put your mind at ease - through the placebo effect, but ultimately useless.

Even the N95 masks, only stop particles down to 0.3 microns - the virus is less than half that size at 0.12, so even the 'good' masks aren't...

[NIR]

With any kind of bug the realistic objective is not to eliminate it but to slow it down and masks are effective in doing this, as are reducing social contact and avoiding international travel. If you don't feel like doing this for yourself then at least do it for the sake of others.

Edited March 3, 2020 by NIR

[Edo]

the hysteria is going to cause 100 times more damage than the actual bug itself.

Claire Byrne deserves a kick up the bum for that OTT hysterical show last night - appearing in a quarantine tent and going on about to how to survive in it at home...............F.F.S.!!!

9 people were killed in totally preventable car accidents over the weekend - but we're not banning cars, restricting their speeds or banning driving on particular roads.......not even having that conversation..........................people need to get a grip..

Just wash yer hands properly a couple of times a day folks and be mindful of your actions and how they might impact others - some hope of that when you can buy 2 tonnes of jacks roll and freezed dried pasta and spend the night talking sh^te about the end of the world on the internet with people you don't know.

Im based for work at Shannon Airport a couple of days a week - I am mindful that im in a high risk category even tho Im in a back office role as opposed to a front customer facing role - which my wife is - luckily no sign of anything here yet and no direct flights to Italy or China out of Shannon.

Our nearest and oldest neighbour fell down the stairs a couple of weeks ago - breaking a pile of ribs, some vertebrae and puncturing a lung....ie the grumpy old git is still lucky to with us -he's a tough old chap and happily he's on the mend - we went in to visit him yesterday evening - but we both had showers and thru on the sanitiser before we went - given how weak he is and where he is ...............

The internet is truly a double edged sword - fantastic for sharing knowledge and getting in contact with like minded people and those whom you share interests - like here .......on the other hand - it has truly ordained a new age of stupid in giving a platform for a  multitude of awful fecking gobsh^tes who know little enough to be  truly dangerous....

 

 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Edo